Pleasing-Fallacy
0x9a4423472b1190be15e5abb6083aa8320b77421b
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$18.77
Total PnL
$0.42
Realised
$-0.78
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$12.99
$2.99
- NO
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.10
$0.01
- NO
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.49
$0.00
- NO
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- YES
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.00Dec 26, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?$393.81Nov 8, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$1.00Nov 6, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition$10.00Nov 6, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?$397.30Nov 6, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?$383.33Nov 6, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?$385.20Nov 6, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.00Nov 6, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sliwa or Adams get more votes?$2.06Nov 6, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be a recount in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.05Nov 6, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?$1.35Nov 6, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?$1.35Nov 6, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMCuomo x Mamdani debate before election?$2.15Nov 6, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?$3.61Nov 6, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a recount in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Sep 23, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?$3.00Sep 23, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuomo x Mamdani debate before election?$2.00Sep 23, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sliwa or Adams get more votes?$2.00Sep 23, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?$2.28Sep 23, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?$1.22Sep 23, 01:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $49.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 25, 04:26 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 26, 11:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.