Smoggy-Household
0x9aa6d04cc8b1211b921f9905ce6215b58d7454a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$25.21
Total PnL
$-631.99
Realised
$-9.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
917 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$25.21
$-12.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?
2104 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.52
- YES
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
993 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-36.23
- YES
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
824 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-22.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?
324 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?
191 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
183 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- NO
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on February 27?
141 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2?
112 shares @ 67.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-75.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3?
101 shares @ 95.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-95.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran leadership change by March 13?$99.98Mar 18, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 11?$10.00Mar 12, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11?$144.06Mar 12, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?$41.66Mar 11, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11?$69.00Mar 11, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 11?$10.00Mar 11, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 11?$80.00Mar 11, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 11?$130.00Mar 11, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 11?$35.00Mar 11, 09:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 11?$53.71Mar 11, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?$14.91Mar 10, 11:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 9?$30.00Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9?$41.12Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 9?$72.00Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 9?$78.54Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 9?$88.34Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9?$104.22Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 9?$120.20Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 9?$163.48Mar 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 9?$21.00Mar 9, 15:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $52.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 08:03 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 07:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.