0x9aa8f3193b3cf08519d9eda2b841469a295b63a4
0x9aa8f3193b3cf08519d9eda2b841469a295b63a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
132
Open notional
$474.87
Total PnL
$-120.80
Realised
$14.45
Win rate
55%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 132- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 1?
58 shares @ 68.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$52.25
$12.55
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?
85 shares @ 52.6¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$52.02
$7.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 30?
34 shares @ 31.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$34.17
$23.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 31?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.50
$27.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 1?
70 shares @ 34.3¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$29.08
$5.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 31?
25 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.07
$19.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 31?
23 shares @ 20.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.37
$18.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 1?
56 shares @ 29.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$16.96
$0.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?
17 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$16.84
$10.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?
57 shares @ 26.6¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.95
$-1.21
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?$1.37Jul 31, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on August 1?$1.00Jul 31, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?$0.90Jul 31, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1?$0.06Jul 31, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1?$0.48Jul 31, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 2?$1.22Jul 31, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 1?$0.25Jul 31, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 2?$0.19Jul 31, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 2?$0.05Jul 31, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?$0.75Jul 31, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 2?$0.96Jul 31, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 1?$0.98Jul 31, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 2?$0.40Jul 31, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 2?$0.60Jul 31, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 1?$0.45Jul 31, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on August 1?$0.69Jul 31, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 2?$0.37Jul 31, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on August 1?$0.32Jul 31, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 2?$0.84Jul 31, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 1?$0.90Jul 31, 18:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
38 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 16:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 19:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.