Affectionate-Knight
0x9b15f878d57301175e518d617e12fce4de8be717
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
104
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-236.00
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 104- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?
13333 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2025$0.00
$-183.13
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 9?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-15.99
- YES
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 12?
6947 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,900 on September 24?
6666 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-6.67
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1?
6666 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.33
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 25?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?
5482 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6AM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Mar 12, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$40.00Mar 11, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$40.00Mar 11, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$79.29Mar 11, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5.00Mar 11, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$2.19Mar 11, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 12?$15.00Mar 11, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?$16.49Mar 11, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?$82.60Mar 11, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?$2.38Mar 11, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 11?$9.05Mar 11, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?$100.00Mar 11, 12:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 11, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?$1.00Mar 10, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?$10.00Mar 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?$74.24Mar 10, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 10?$1.00Mar 10, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 10?$2.45Mar 10, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 10?$10.00Mar 10, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Mar 10, 14:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $15.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 02:52 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 12, 00:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.