Polite-Roadway
0x9bad119382d392abad7617714aad2f16c826e98d
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-721.10
Realised
$-28.00
Win rate
1%
145 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4770 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
- YES
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1522 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.61
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
769 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
454 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.07Aug 17, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$3.19Aug 17, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.07Aug 17, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$5.35Aug 17, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$10.38Aug 9, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$10.58Aug 9, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 20, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$3.14Jul 19, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$3.11Jul 19, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$2.09Jul 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$2.09Jul 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$3.15Jul 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$3.15Jul 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$3.15Jul 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$2.09Jul 19, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.05Jul 19, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$2.09Jul 19, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$1.06Jul 19, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$13.14Jul 19, 02:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 145 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
145 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 20:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 13:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 145 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.