Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

124

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-592.21

Realised

$-32.93

Win rate

10%

121 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 124

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
98 shares @ 41.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-41.05
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
98 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-14.00
YES
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?
77 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?
42 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
42 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
33 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
28 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 14:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$5.05Jul 2, 14:09 UTC
TRADESELLUnited States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5$4.36Jul 2, 01:48 UTC
TRADESELLUnited States leading at halftime?$5.44Jul 2, 01:39 UTC
TRADEBUYUnited States leading at halftime?$3.04Jul 1, 19:48 UTC
TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5$3.03Jul 1, 19:47 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.09Jun 30, 12:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.03Jun 30, 12:16 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$0.40Jun 30, 12:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$1.03Jun 30, 12:13 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 12:09 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 12:08 UTC
TRADESELLBrazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5$6.51Jun 29, 18:59 UTC
TRADEBUYVinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Brazil leading at halftime?$5.00Jun 29, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5$3.05Jun 29, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMArgentina leading at halftime?$4.48Jun 28, 04:12 UTC
REDEEMPortugal leading at halftime?$0.00Jun 28, 01:45 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina leading at halftime?$3.03Jun 27, 15:27 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal leading at halftime?$3.05Jun 27, 15:26 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$3.04Jun 27, 15:26 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 121 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

121 closed markets, 10% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry59 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $3.86
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 25, 05:58 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 14:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 121 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:16:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data