Creepy-Confirmation
0x9c4e57b6fee0af33c4f8520264dfc99745e24708
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$193.48
Total PnL
$-1.22
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?
1165 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$105.48
$0.24
- YES
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 19.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$88.00
$12.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 20?
34 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 20?
14 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 22?
10 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$12.60Jul 23, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$10.44Jul 23, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$8.80Jul 23, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$5.52Jul 23, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$1.82Jul 23, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$23.76Jul 23, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$19.00Jul 23, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$17.66Jul 23, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$1.54Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$57.00Jul 22, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 22?$2.39Jul 22, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 22?$1.21Jul 22, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 22?$6.12Jul 22, 09:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$143.40Jul 21, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$7.74Jul 21, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$0.40Jul 21, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?$10.00Jul 20, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$14.96Jul 20, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 20?$20.00Jul 20, 21:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $19.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 16:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.