Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

178

Open notional

$6.73

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-371.13

Win rate

173 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 178

DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
5 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$5.43
$1.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
1 shares @ 83.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$1.30
$0.22
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
118 shares @ 36.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-42.91
UP
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
84 shares @ 32.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-26.93
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
81 shares @ 42.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-34.50
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
66 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-22.23
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
61 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-18.87
UP
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
55 shares @ 33.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-18.25
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
47 shares @ 39.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-18.71
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
45 shares @ 30.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-13.71

Recent activity

REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.34Jun 17, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$4.02Jun 17, 13:49 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$5.30Jun 17, 12:41 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$4.50Jun 17, 12:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$4.17Jun 17, 06:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$5.24Jun 17, 04:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$4.40Jun 17, 04:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.10Jun 17, 04:14 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.06Jun 16, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$4.49Jun 16, 08:24 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$4.02Jun 15, 20:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$5.18Jun 15, 11:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$4.40Jun 15, 10:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.24Jun 15, 09:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$4.40Jun 15, 09:44 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$5.00Jun 15, 04:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$5.37Jun 15, 04:54 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$4.29Jun 15, 04:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$4.41Jun 15, 04:44 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.24Jun 15, 00:29 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

9% win rate over 173 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

173 closed markets, 9% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry72 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $3.93
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 8, 13:25 UTC
Last active: Jun 17, 14:22 UTC
Win rate sample: 173 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:47:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data