Official-Trouble-Duck
0x9c90cad21cb08320fb224eab032ddae311c017ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$169.83
Total PnL
$5.39
Realised
$31.86
Win rate
64%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 21?
20 shares @ 83.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$16.30
$-0.30
- YES
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$15.25
$-2.25
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$14.40
$-1.00
- YES
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027?
20 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$11.20
$0.00
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
50 shares @ 19.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$10.50
$1.00
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
15 shares @ 66.5¢·now 63.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.32
$-0.41
- YES
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
50 shares @ 23.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$8.25
$-3.25
- YES
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
30 shares @ 28.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$7.95
$-0.45
- NO
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
20 shares @ 42.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$7.47
$-1.01
- NO
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 69.7¢·now 71.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.28
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$1.38Jun 20, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$7.14Jun 20, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$12.40Jun 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$18.45Jun 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?$4.60Jun 20, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$12.49Jun 20, 09:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 21?$7.50Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- MERGEWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$10.37Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21?$14.29Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?$16.11Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- MERGEWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$20.00Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- MERGEWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$62.14Jun 20, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?$7.40Jun 20, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$13.60Jun 20, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$5.03Jun 20, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$5.06Jun 20, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 21?$6.90Jun 20, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$6.76Jun 20, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21?$0.50Jun 20, 09:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?$4.94Jun 20, 09:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $7.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 08:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 09:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.