Ill-Fated-Stud
0x9d15cf670dd3853237b6e466b51b66890eccd3de
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
154
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-286.11
Realised
$-2.77
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 154- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
113 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
102 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
49 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
44 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
21 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
20 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.49Jul 30, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.02Jul 30, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.07Jul 30, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.69Jul 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.06Jul 30, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.67Jul 30, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.06Jul 30, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.64Jul 30, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$2.04Jul 30, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.85Jul 30, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.03Jul 30, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.03Jul 30, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Jul 30, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Jul 30, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.06Jul 30, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.05Jul 30, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.04Jul 30, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.96Jul 30, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.03Jul 30, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.49Jul 30, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 09:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.