Wallet digest

active

Activity score

28/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-24.8K

Realised

$-12.0K

Win rate

198 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3PM ET
1000 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-153.10
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8AM ET
694 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-361.62
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
683 shares @ 32.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-223.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
564 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
488 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026
$0.00
$-224.66
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
454 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-135.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET
439 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-96.38
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
397 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-110.64
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
390 shares @ 31.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-122.62
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
383 shares @ 54.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-208.51

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.63Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.39Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.90Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.46Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.13Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.57Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.32Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.26Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.70Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.86Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.31Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.35Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.65Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.86Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET$1.06Jun 19, 02:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET$100.59Jun 19, 02:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$0.00Jun 19, 02:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$0.00Jun 19, 02:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$52.10Jun 19, 02:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$42.42Jun 19, 02:23 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 198 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

198 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity34 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry48 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 21
Avg trade size: $15.09
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 5, 02:32 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 198 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:19:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data