Celebrated-Howard
0x9daa2fae4ed179a77cc1c3bf1356d9cec6fc9904
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.48
Realised
$1.59
Win rate
97%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-14?
15 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- NO
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) - Completed match?
15 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NO
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?
10 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on February 5?
10 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- NO
Leicester City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to Score
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NO
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 19?
10 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- NO
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) - Toss Match Double England Winner
10 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- NO
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 4?
10 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $155?$0.03Mar 20, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over 5,550 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?$0.03Mar 20, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates$0.01Mar 19, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates$0.01Mar 19, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?$0.01Mar 19, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of March?$0.01Mar 19, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$0.01Mar 19, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend?$0.01Mar 19, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?$0.06Mar 19, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?$0.01Mar 18, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?$0.01Mar 18, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Chairman" on Truth Social this week?$0.01Mar 18, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of March?$0.01Mar 18, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$0.01Mar 18, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$0.01Mar 18, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 16 above $185?$0.01Mar 18, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 18?$0.04Mar 18, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 18?$0.01Mar 18, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?$0.01Mar 18, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on March 18?$0.01Mar 18, 10:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.
32 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 10:41 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 10:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.