Celebrated-Howard
0x9daa2fae4ed179a77cc1c3bf1356d9cec6fc9904
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.25
Total PnL
$2.87
Realised
$1.69
Win rate
97%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Exact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 São Paulo FC?
12 shares @ 0.2¢·now 25.4¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$3.14
$3.11
- YES
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.10
$0.08
- YES
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.10
$0.09
- YES
Will Qingdao West Coast win Chinese Super League?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 1, 2026$0.06
$0.05
- YES
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.06
$0.05
- YES
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
5 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.05
$0.03
- YES
Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.04
$0.03
- YES
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.04
$0.03
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.04
$0.03
- YES
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.03
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paige Bueckers have the highest points per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?$0.01Aug 8, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$0.01Aug 8, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lance Stroll win the 2026 Action of the Year?$0.01Aug 8, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$0.04Aug 8, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$0.02Aug 8, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 9?$0.02Aug 8, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$0.04Aug 8, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF M25 Southaven, MS Men, Qualifying: Completed Match: Prathinav Chunduru vs Alfie King$0.01Aug 8, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$0.02Aug 8, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 São Paulo FC?$0.01Aug 8, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 São Paulo FC?$0.00Aug 8, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 São Paulo FC?$0.00Aug 8, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 São Paulo FC?$0.00Aug 8, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLModena FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Draw at halftime?$0.03Aug 8, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?$0.03Aug 8, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-08?$0.04Aug 8, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?$0.01Aug 8, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?$0.01Aug 8, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?$0.01Aug 8, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-08?$0.01Aug 8, 14:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
31 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 07:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 19:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.