Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$-310.38

Win rate

44 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 44

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
696 shares @ 30.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-210.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
531 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-166.31
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
527 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
432 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-115.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
388 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-90.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
380 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-73.98
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
374 shares @ 56.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-210.00
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET
366 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-46.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
364 shares @ 54.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
319 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-84.86

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 00:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$3.10Jul 11, 00:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$3.12Jul 11, 00:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$3.10Jul 11, 00:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$5.17Jul 11, 00:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 00:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$14.06Jul 11, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$9.23Jul 11, 00:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$9.09Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$5.16Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$0.01Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$5.87Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$12.02Jul 11, 00:05 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.40Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$0.10Jul 8, 01:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.11Jul 8, 01:58 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.04Jul 8, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$76.70Jul 7, 20:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 44 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

44 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $36.81
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 17:31 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 00:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 44 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:40:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data