Reasonable-Alder
0x9e2ec1af9726faaf320ac998910fba1a47694606
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$313.31
Win rate
59%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
2357 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-161.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
2210 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-129.81
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
1887 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-189.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
1620 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-91.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
1534 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-119.75
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
1501 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-139.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
1423 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-83.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
1235 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-130.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
1224 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-70.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$3.00Mar 25, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$14.12Mar 25, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$12.40Mar 25, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$12.32Mar 25, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.00Mar 25, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$9.46Mar 25, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$11.77Mar 25, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$9.91Mar 25, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$2.00Mar 25, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.00Mar 25, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.00Mar 25, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$15.00Mar 25, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.90Mar 25, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$8.27Mar 25, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 21:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
34 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 18:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 25, 21:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.