Fatherly-Bike
0x9e35329d4518a18a0742d99d3a62209d5f05b0a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-841.44
Realised
$87.93
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
2980 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.98
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
2007 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-39.50
- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
1742 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-26.06
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
1048 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-14.89
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24?
1030 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- YES
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
1027 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
1001 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?$30.03Mar 14, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.69Mar 14, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.96Mar 14, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$23.00Mar 14, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$8.80Mar 10, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$8.80Mar 10, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$3.09Mar 10, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$3.09Mar 10, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$4.17Mar 10, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$4.18Mar 10, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$10.00Mar 9, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 4?$2.98Mar 9, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026?$1.14Mar 9, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$11.83Mar 9, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$12.14Feb 28, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$27.00Feb 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.78Feb 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?$1.25Feb 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?$1.01Feb 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?$1.03Feb 28, 15:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 14:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 14, 13:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.