Similar-Lily
0x9e5dc9c54083888315e6443e6b44e5db25307ed8
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-169.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?
1200 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2024$0.00
$-101.25
- YES
Will Biden say "Anyway" five or more times during drop out speech?
340 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2024$0.00
$-34.00
- YES
Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times during drop out speech?
136 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2024$0.00
$-34.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$0.00Aug 2, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$38.21Jul 25, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$40.02Jul 25, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?$47.25Jul 25, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?$54.00Jul 25, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$0.51Jul 25, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$19.00Jul 25, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$0.98Jul 25, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden say "Folks" three or more times during drop out speech?$34.06Jul 24, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden say "Anyway" five or more times during drop out speech?$34.00Jul 24, 21:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $29.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 21:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 00:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.