Murky-Leeway-Hobby
0x9e5fc2bae05c4eec4a30a2c1ac6dc593f51a08ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$970.77
Total PnL
$-155.68
Realised
$109.06
Win rate
56%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 7?
78 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$77.96
$36.62
- YES
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $158 Week of August 3 2026?
58 shares @ 71.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$54.26
$12.75
- NO
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
81 shares @ 17.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$50.58
$36.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7?
78 shares @ 42.9¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$41.54
$7.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7?
78 shares @ 54.3¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$36.84
$-5.73
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 8?
71 shares @ 44.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$35.78
$4.43
- YES
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
40 shares @ 73.5¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$34.00
$4.60
- NO
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?
40 shares @ 43.9¢·now 79.3¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$31.74
$14.18
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 7?
60 shares @ 52.7¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$31.50
$-0.10
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?
47 shares @ 72.0¢·now 64.3¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$30.24
$-3.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$15.20Aug 7, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?$1.95Aug 7, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?$4.68Aug 7, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$7.60Aug 7, 03:33 UTC
- MERGEWill "Super Troopers 3" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$20.00Aug 7, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?$3.20Aug 7, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$14.20Aug 7, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStripChain FDV above $80M one day after launch?$12.20Aug 7, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?$8.02Aug 7, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Super Troopers 3" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$17.20Aug 7, 03:22 UTC
- MERGEWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?$19.99Aug 7, 03:21 UTC
- MERGEWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$17.54Aug 7, 03:21 UTC
- MERGEWill "Tony" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$20.00Aug 7, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?$6.00Aug 7, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?$2.50Aug 7, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$26.65Aug 7, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Tony" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$18.00Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- MERGEWill "Tony" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$20.00Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- MERGEWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$20.00Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- MERGEWill Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$20.00Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
82/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
41 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $10.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 02:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.