Scarce-Nexus
0x9e7e57fbc4dd03dc7b0eea98f1f01bc100083e1d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$626.09
Total PnL
$-85.2K
Realised
$-42.4K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
2376 shares @ 30.6¢·now 26.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$626.09
$-101.92
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
126994 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-27.4K
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
20853 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-15.2K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$13.83Jul 25, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.78Jul 25, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.78Jul 25, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.46Jul 25, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$10.75Jul 25, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.09Jul 25, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$0.62Jul 25, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$0.66Jul 25, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.49Jul 24, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$2.98Jul 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$5.96Jul 23, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.79Jul 23, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$7.45Jul 23, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$3.44Jul 22, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$7.27Jul 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$4.32Jul 17, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$2.43Jul 17, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 16, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$5.19Jul 16, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$4.95Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$5.7K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 13, 17:30 UTC → Jun 13, 17:20 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$5.7K@68¢Jun 13, 17:20 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
$5.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $488.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 23:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.