Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$5.00

Total PnL

$-15.52

Realised

$-0.57

Win rate

7 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$5.00
$2.25
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
5 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.85
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.35
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.55
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.25
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.05
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.10
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.05

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$2.13Aug 6, 18:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.11Aug 6, 18:53 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:39 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$2.94Jul 28, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.68Jul 28, 08:30 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:28 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.00Jul 28, 08:28 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$3.07Jul 28, 08:21 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$2.54Jul 28, 08:21 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Jul 28, 08:19 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

29/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 7 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity25 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence23 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry88 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk69 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 9
Avg trade size: $2.10
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 08:06 UTC
Last active: Aug 6, 18:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 7 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:28:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data