Extraneous-Surprise
0x9ea2f9a4ac4d4ce350db2f997a7d79e23d0d665a
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$302.77
Total PnL
$-12.5K
Realised
$583.71
Win rate
57%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?
302 shares @ 31.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$302.32
$205.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?
350 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.35
$-8.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.10
$-5.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 15?
1930 shares @ 20.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-401.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 18?
1798 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-303.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?
1643 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-165.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 13?
1579 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-374.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?
1537 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-334.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?
1506 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-31.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?
1224 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-182.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?$6.00Jul 29, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$6.25Jul 29, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$19.67Jul 29, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$5.78Jul 29, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$63.70Jul 29, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$10.71Jul 29, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$0.06Jul 29, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$3.15Jul 29, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$50.00Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$2.75Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.32Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$2.80Jul 28, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$2.80Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$1.99Jul 28, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$10.20Jul 28, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$4.02Jul 28, 14:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.45Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?$31.43Jul 27, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?$4.81Jul 27, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?$61.43Jul 27, 14:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
30 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.