Nocturnal-Alluvium
0x9f117e88f89f4b366d09cbb2e3056fa44754ddc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-16.2K
Realised
$-3.2K
Win rate
54%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?
6954 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
5000 shares @ 69.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.5K
- YES
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?
2957 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-492.46
- YES
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?
2000 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-388.58
- NO
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?
2000 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-787.12
- YES
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?
2000 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-489.33
- NO
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?
1642 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-768.62
- YES
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $12m?
1080 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2025$0.00
$-51.08
- CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
1034 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- NO
Will "One Battle After Another" gross 130% or more of "Gabby's Dollhouse"?
1000 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-329.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?$101.47Jul 19, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$217.39Jul 12, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$310.65Jul 12, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$102.70Jul 12, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)$208.26Jul 12, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)$102.90Jul 12, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)$188.68Jul 12, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)$101.55Jul 12, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)$178.57Jul 12, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)$102.35Jul 12, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)$102.20Jul 12, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?$0.84Jul 11, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$40.57Jun 14, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$11.95Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$4.01Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$0.01Jun 13, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$18.00Jun 13, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$84.81Jun 13, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$22.28Jun 13, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$0.02Jun 13, 22:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $52.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 19:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 05:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.