Broken-Idea
0x9f208e85f326f865077fffa68b32d8b0e2bc12c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.58
Total PnL
$-31.0K
Realised
$-530.70
Win rate
8%
100 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
4543 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.27
$-172.47
- YES
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
4157 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.08
$-157.82
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2866 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.43
$-108.81
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2836 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.42
$-107.67
- YES
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2740 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.37
$-104.03
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2715 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.36
$-103.06
- YES
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2650 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.33
$-100.61
- YES
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2370 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.19
$-89.99
- YES
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
2275 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.14
$-89.87
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?
10095 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-280.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or below on July 30?$0.03Jul 30, 11:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 31?$90.00Jul 30, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 30?$4.86Jul 30, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$36.39Jul 30, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?$15.65Jul 30, 09:30 UTC
- CONVERSIONEthereum price on July 30?$30.00Jul 30, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?$13.03Jul 30, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?$2.77Jul 30, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?$4.22Jul 30, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get at least 36 million views on day 5?$2.97Jul 30, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?$30.33Jul 30, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?$8.09Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?$17.88Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 31?$7.90Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C or below on July 31?$3.24Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.56Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 31?$9.71Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 31?$9.86Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 31?$9.62Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 90°F or higher on July 31?$9.99Jul 30, 09:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 100 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
100 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $12.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 09:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 11:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 100 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.