Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

128

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-9.2K

Realised

$-3.3K

Win rate

85 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 128

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
1001 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
717 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-121.28
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
647 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-341.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
556 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-118.19
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
470 shares @ 35.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-166.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
459 shares @ 43.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
397 shares @ 52.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-210.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
386 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-160.50

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$607.69Jul 19, 22:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$94.71Jul 19, 22:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$101.62Jul 19, 22:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$42.80Jul 19, 21:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 21:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$102.04Jul 19, 21:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$51.78Jul 19, 21:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$10.31Jul 19, 21:38 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$8.26Jul 19, 21:31 UTC
TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$97.08Jul 19, 21:26 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?$110.44Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$97.62Jul 19, 20:56 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?$64.58Jul 19, 20:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$0.00Jul 18, 11:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$206.66Jul 18, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$98.20Jul 18, 11:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$44.88Jul 18, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$0.00Jul 18, 10:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$94.87Jul 18, 10:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$51.66Jul 18, 10:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 85 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

85 closed markets, 7% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry66 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $59.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 4, 17:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 22:09 UTC
Win rate sample: 85 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:17:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data