0x9f35b684e4e2b1d7ce9df616e26431c43d4674e2
0x9f35b684e4e2b1d7ce9df616e26431c43d4674e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$172.74
Total PnL
$-262.28
Realised
$-1.47
Win rate
3%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will Russell Fry win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$10.52
$0.53
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$10.22
$0.22
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$10.14
$0.14
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?
10 shares @ 96.8¢·now 97.6¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$10.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.05
$0.05
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
10 shares @ 96.5¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
11 shares @ 93.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$9.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 70.9¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
10 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.94
$-0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?$10.02Aug 17, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $70 on August 20?$10.01Aug 17, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$10.03Aug 17, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: NK Celje (-2.5)$10.01Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?$10.03Aug 17, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$10.02Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?$10.04Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$10.00Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$10.02Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?$10.03Aug 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$10.00Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$10.00Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$10.02Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gareth Bale attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$10.64Aug 14, 23:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$10.36Aug 14, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$10.43Aug 14, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) finish week of August 10 above $610?$10.53Aug 14, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 14?$10.35Aug 14, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 14?$10.33Aug 14, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$10.57Aug 14, 11:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
31 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $10.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 05:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.