Vast-Lawmaker-Hatchling
0x9f5a7099c531d8c01d0f0c53cbd5571ebbb1a91f
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-138.67
Realised
$-1.81
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
371 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?
223 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
63 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$10.00Jul 18, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?$5.12Jul 3, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?$5.13Jul 3, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?$5.13Jul 2, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?$10.00Jul 1, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.41Jun 30, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$5.35Jun 30, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCody Gakpo: 1+ goals AND Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?$4.99Jun 29, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYVinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners$4.99Jun 29, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYKai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals AND Deniz Undav: 1+ goals AND Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals$4.99Jun 29, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Morocco leading at halftime?$9.99Jun 29, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYVinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$9.99Jun 29, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$14.29Jun 23, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$25.00Jun 23, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?$31.25Jun 23, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$5.11Jun 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$5.10Jun 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?$5.13Jun 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMichael Olise: 1+ goals$5.08Jun 22, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$48.92Jun 22, 16:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $8.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 13:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 18:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.