Creative-Track
0x9fb3fcfd1052d4db8736100af140d8ad4bc24393
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.08
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$186.82
Win rate
68%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
80 shares @ 25.9¢·now 23.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.08
$-1.67
- YES
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?
1500 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-54.61
- YES
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?
1000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2025$0.00
$-18.68
- YES
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?
800 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-15.20
- YES
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?
800 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-180.90
- YES
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?
700 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?
600 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-47.50
- YES
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?
600 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-25.60
- YES
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?
600 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-6.68
- YES
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?
553 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2025$0.00
$-17.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.11Jul 21, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.01Jul 21, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.46Jul 21, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.05Jul 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.61Jul 21, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$0.88Jul 21, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.03Jul 21, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.01Jul 21, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$0.67Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.05Jul 21, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.95Jul 21, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.05Jul 21, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$2.03Jul 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$2.29Jul 21, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$2.03Jul 21, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.57Jul 21, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$0.25Jul 21, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.03Jul 21, 08:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 07:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 09:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.