Elegant-Forearm
0x9fbaf23f5720be5bc346546bf87aaff5e0a73adc
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.30
Total PnL
$-90.85
Realised
$22.21
Win rate
76%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?
50 shares @ 3.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.75
$4.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 29?
155 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.08
$-0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?
53 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.03
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 28?
300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 28?
248 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 28?
248 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 21?
208 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 8?
206 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17?
200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?$1.12Jul 29, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?$3.83Jul 29, 05:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$0.63Jul 29, 05:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$8.21Jul 29, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?$11.00Jul 29, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$1.08Jul 29, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?$0.99Jul 29, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 29?$0.12Jul 29, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 29?$0.04Jul 29, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.91Jul 29, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?$1.46Jul 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$2.77Jul 29, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 29, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.50Jul 29, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?$0.01Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$0.90Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$0.60Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?$0.99Jul 29, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$1.44Jul 29, 04:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
41 closed markets, 76% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.