Tender-Patriarch
0x9fc3008979bad97e6ea01a7062bbf7f3edf212af
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$381.67
Total PnL
$-230.94
Realised
$60.89
Win rate
65%
49 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?
20 shares @ 80.4¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$16.99
$1.28
- NO
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
20 shares @ 83.5¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2026$15.60
$-1.10
- YES
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
20 shares @ 82.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.69
$-2.73
- NO
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
20 shares @ 79.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.00
$-2.80
- NO
Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the top song for 2026?
10 shares @ 92.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.98
$0.75
- NO
Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song in the US for 2026?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.98
$0.88
- NO
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.3¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.92
$0.29
- NO
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?
10 shares @ 94.7¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$9.68
$0.21
- NO
Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$9.60
$-0.80
- NO
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?
10 shares @ 66.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.47
$2.87
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$10.00Jul 29, 02:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?$10.00Jul 27, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paul Seixas win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$10.00Jul 26, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paul Seixas finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$10.00Jul 26, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Biniam Girmay be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$5.00Jul 26, 21:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$10.00Jul 26, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$6.68Jul 26, 18:41 UTC
- MERGEWill 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$10.00Jul 26, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$9.04Jul 26, 11:12 UTC
- MERGEWill 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$17.16Jul 26, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$15.63Jul 26, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Simu Liu appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$10.00Jul 26, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthony Mackie appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$10.00Jul 26, 04:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chris Evans appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$15.82Jul 26, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robert Downey Jr. appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$10.00Jul 26, 04:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video?$1.75Jul 25, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?$5.71Jul 25, 18:03 UTC
- MERGEWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$12.00Jul 25, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$2.10Jul 25, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$1.50Jul 25, 16:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 49 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
49 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $9.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 21:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 49 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.