Wallet digest

active

Activity score

51/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.8K

Realised

$-73.04

Win rate

52%

42 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
1043 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
610 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.23
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4AM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.11
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
246 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-91.20
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10PM ET
214 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
145 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-4.65
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3AM ET
122 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-18.58
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3AM ET
119 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026
$0.00
$-4.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
100 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$13.86May 5, 00:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$13.61May 5, 00:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$7.91May 4, 18:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$7.55May 4, 18:18 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$7.92May 4, 16:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$7.78May 4, 16:53 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$9.90May 4, 16:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$9.53May 4, 16:22 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$9.99May 4, 14:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$9.81May 4, 14:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$9.90May 4, 14:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$9.63May 4, 14:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$9.90May 4, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$9.72May 4, 14:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$7.92May 4, 14:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$7.78May 4, 14:33 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.10May 4, 13:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$9.90May 4, 10:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$9.73May 4, 10:28 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$7.92May 4, 06:29 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

52% win rate over 42 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

42 closed markets, 52% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $7.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 1, 20:55 UTC
Last active: May 5, 00:53 UTC
Win rate sample: 42 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:52:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data