Nautical-Extinction
0x9fffe17f11f1c7fc1234f8d1f5b679b636587abf
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
180
Open notional
$11.47
Total PnL
$-168.84
Realised
$-7.24
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 180- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.60
$1.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.00
$0.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.00
$0.50
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.00
$0.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.53
$0.03
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 0.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.52
$0.52
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 0.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.51
$0.51
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 0.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.49
$0.49
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 0.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.48
$0.48
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.47
$-0.03
Recent activity
- SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- SPLITSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- SPLITSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- SPLITSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?$1.50Jul 14, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Jul 14, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 16?$0.20Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $0.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 07:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.