Unacceptable-Adapter
0xa02304e9f72e3866295c790af3590b95f77832bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
70
Open notional
$6.74
Total PnL
$-128.28
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.50
$4.50
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-0.76
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 220 and 234 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 205 and 219 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
500 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 12?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?$12.50Apr 3, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$7.99Mar 16, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$37.88Feb 28, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$11.00Feb 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?$0.04Feb 27, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?$0.03Feb 27, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?$0.04Feb 26, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$0.00Feb 25, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?$0.36Feb 24, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Hamnet" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?$0.02Feb 21, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$3.86Feb 17, 19:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$3.86Feb 17, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the State of the Union address be delayed?$1.00Feb 17, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 19:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 15:45 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 3, 11:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.