That-Craft
0xa02e4a5922951cba57d71db258a6ae2ae1d78331
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-28.5K
Realised
$7.7K
Win rate
58%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
21327 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-95.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
17441 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-35.14
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
16706 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-482.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
14458 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-77.25
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
10791 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
10074 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-511.94
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
9477 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-187.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
9033 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-39.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
8224 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-43.73
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
8142 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-124.92
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 78 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
78 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.