Sardonic-Celsius
0xa043fab8521e209eb7d20bb20f1dc6a9809d09d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-212.90
Realised
$-8.28
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 1?
685 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 2?
211 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-65.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 1?
168 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-11.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 2?
151 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-18.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 2?
68 shares @ 38.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-26.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 2?
60 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2?
52 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-17.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 2?
34 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?
32 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2?
21 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-9.11
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$136.46Apr 8, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$79.39Mar 31, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$79.39Mar 31, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$69.78Mar 27, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?$5.60Mar 2, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 3?$0.47Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3?$0.60Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 3?$1.29Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2?$2.05Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 3?$3.32Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?$0.05Mar 2, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 2?$9.46Mar 2, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 2?$3.77Mar 2, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?$0.48Mar 2, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?$1.14Mar 2, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?$2.56Mar 2, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2?$7.05Mar 2, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 2?$5.05Mar 2, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 2?$2.97Mar 2, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 2?$1.12Mar 2, 11:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 08:01 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 20:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.