Medium-Result
0xa047582335186507d864064411f66492eb454ffa
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$104.54
Total PnL
$-336.07
Realised
$0.16
Win rate
43%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.00
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.95
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.92
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.92
$-0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.92
$-0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.89
$-0.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 98.2¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.78
$-0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 91.5¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.34
$0.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.55
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONEthereum price on July 29?$15.00Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 29?$2.54Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 29?$4.94Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 29?$4.94Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 29?$2.55Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Toronto on July 29?$35.26Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 29?$5.86Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$4.98Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 29?$5.48Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on July 29?$5.86Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 29?$5.86Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 29?$4.06Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 29?$3.17Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$1.59Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- CONVERSIONMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner$79.92Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandre Silveira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.87Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tadeu Leite win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.94Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.77Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.21Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.69Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
46 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.