Medium-Result
0xa047582335186507d864064411f66492eb454ffa
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$105.89
Total PnL
$-341.86
Realised
$1.04
Win rate
41%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.00
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.00
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.99
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.95
$-0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.94
$-0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.93
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?
10 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.90
$-0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 91.5¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.48
$0.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.45
$-0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.35
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?$5.26Jul 29, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$0.37Jul 29, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?$0.57Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$5.12Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Guangzhou on July 29?$40.00Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?$9.48Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$5.10Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 29?$3.82Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 29?$7.30Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Guangzhou on July 29?$60.00Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?$9.53Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$9.92Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 29?$3.82Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?$9.42Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 29?$7.00Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 30?$7.76Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
41 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.