Upbeat-Politician
0xa054a910cff3f6d3503335577f12d68a169aa95d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-517.01
Realised
$-251.37
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24?
182 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-20.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?
131 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-51.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 11?
128 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-21.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-27.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?
81 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 15?
80 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?
50 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-27.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10?
43 shares @ 52.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-22.61
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 8?
40 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?
39 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-26.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?$0.03Jun 24, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?$0.40Jun 24, 07:34 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.94Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.25Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 23?$41.27Jun 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 23?$0.13Jun 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 23?$36.59Jun 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23?$2.93Jun 23, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23?$8.82Jun 23, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23?$6.73Jun 23, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23?$16.47Jun 23, 19:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$9.40Jun 23, 13:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$5.00Jun 23, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$0.72Jun 23, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$1.49Jun 23, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$0.18Jun 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$11.00Jun 23, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$0.32Jun 23, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$1.00Jun 23, 13:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $14.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 08:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.