Sleepy-Cactus
0xa05c4259e96b0ae00feaa737214bf8bf4e8b6f9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.48
Total PnL
$-8.40
Realised
$2.83
Win rate
100%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.09
$-0.09
- YES
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
18 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$0.05
$0.04
- YES
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
24 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.04
$0.01
- YES
Will Tommy Thompson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
18 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.04
$0.02
- YES
Will Rick Jakious be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
18 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$0.03
$0.01
- YES
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
54 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.03
$-0.03
- YES
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
30 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
30 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
24 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
24 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $120 on August 4?$0.01Aug 1, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C or below on August 3?$0.01Aug 1, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$0.01Aug 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by July 31?$0.07Aug 1, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 5?$0.01Aug 1, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.01Aug 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 3?$0.01Aug 1, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on August 3?$0.01Aug 1, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?$0.00Aug 1, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 3.4%?$0.01Aug 1, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Bali: Keisuke Saitoh vs Sam Ryan Ziegann$0.01Aug 1, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah play in Egyptian Premier League next?$0.01Aug 1, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?$0.01Aug 1, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by July 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 6?$0.01Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jio Platforms IPO by July 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 1, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres$0.01Aug 1, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 27-August 2?$0.01Aug 1, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $110 July 27-August 2?$0.01Aug 1, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$0.00Aug 1, 02:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 06:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.