Incredible-Extreme
0xa05ecf2efb56f07812ad51ae68da0c37097f52c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$331.56
Win rate
1%
118 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?
4000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
3590 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- OVER
Colombia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5
1333 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-24.64
- YES
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- CABO VERDE
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance
1042 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-50.03
- YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 France?
985 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Aug 19, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$17.39Aug 19, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.28Jul 31, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.21Jul 31, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.15Jul 31, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.21Jul 31, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.15Jul 31, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$5.35Jul 31, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$11.63Jul 31, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.35Jul 30, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.28Jul 30, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.15Jul 30, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.20Jul 30, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.14Jul 30, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.34Jul 30, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.32Jul 30, 21:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.34Jul 30, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 20:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$6.94Jul 30, 20:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 118 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
118 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $6.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 11:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 118 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.