Medium-Spread
0xa066d22cd3da8706465008a4597ee06206318e98
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$12.72
Total PnL
$-15.98
Realised
$-0.49
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?
13 shares @ 56.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$7.87
$0.58
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$3.17
$-0.57
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$1.68
$-0.04
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
18 shares @ 39.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 23?
12 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.52
- YES
Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
8 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will Orlando Pride win on 2026-07-31?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.15
- YES
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings?
5 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in August?$1.73Aug 13, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.3% in August?$3.80Aug 12, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?$7.44Aug 12, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets$5.00Aug 5, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.15Aug 5, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?$5.00Aug 5, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?$1.08Aug 5, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?$1.37Aug 5, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$1.11Aug 4, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Orlando Pride win on 2026-07-31?$1.19Jul 30, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?$5.14Jul 29, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?$2.10Jul 26, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies winning after 5 innings?$1.25Jul 26, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets$4.52Jul 26, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?$1.58Jul 24, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 23?$2.62Jul 23, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.35Jul 22, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$2.06Jul 22, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.34Jul 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.51Jul 22, 10:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 22:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 01:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.