Offbeat-Balloon
0xa08b7d0d3bedfc14f7d27d276819b4f0b128735e
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-768.36
Realised
$-13.34
Win rate
14%
65 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
45 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
40 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.75
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
40 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.85
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
40 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
38 shares @ 62.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-23.67
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
37 shares @ 47.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.69
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
37 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
37 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.70
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
36 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.93
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
34 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$7.32Jul 22, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$5.83Jul 22, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$14.68Jul 22, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.74Jul 21, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$3.57Jul 21, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$23.02Jul 21, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$15.55Jul 21, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.71Jul 21, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$0.60Jul 21, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.22Jul 21, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$23.55Jul 20, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.86Jul 20, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$2.58Jul 20, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$17.06Jul 20, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.52Jul 20, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.34Jul 20, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$10.72Jul 20, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$18.81Jul 20, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$0.84Jul 20, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$12.89Jul 20, 20:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 65 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
65 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 01:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 09:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 65 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.