Common-Affect
0xa09d35cd5d693f247f33f84bbaec816315d8af80
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$973.62
Total PnL
$-14.2K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?
216 shares @ 85.8¢·now 84.6¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$182.41
$-2.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 13?
162 shares @ 92.3¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$157.98
$7.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 13?
112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$111.67
$11.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?
115 shares @ 86.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$105.29
$5.29
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?
102 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$101.88
$1.88
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 13?
101 shares @ 87.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$99.70
$11.70
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 13?
100 shares @ 44.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$98.65
$54.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 13?
52 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$51.48
$1.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 13?
50 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$48.35
$2.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$16.18
$1.69
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?$91.90Jul 13, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$100.65Jul 13, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?$103.85Jul 13, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 13?$643.89Jul 13, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 13?$280.14Jul 13, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 13?$295.76Jul 13, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 13?$200.35Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 13?$81.05Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 13?$101.18Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?$100.19Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?$50.03Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?$50.06Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$2.66Jul 13, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$2.02Jul 13, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 13?$50.20Jul 13, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$4.89Jul 13, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 13?$14.49Jul 13, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$4.23Jul 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$2.35Jul 13, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?$100.68Jul 13, 04:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $88.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 16:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 07:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.