Large-Stick
0xa0f6c3a9c20f9659cee8ac88ecac87160bec492d
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-942.43
Realised
$-2.82
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 24?
1104 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25?
275 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 24?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24?
128 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24?
123 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 24?
117 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23?
105 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?$58.80Jun 26, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?$50.20Jun 26, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?$2.71Jun 26, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26?$2.96Jun 26, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26?$1.43Jun 26, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?$2.70Jun 26, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26?$2.35Jun 26, 00:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?$3.09Jun 25, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?$1.00Jun 25, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26?$0.65Jun 25, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?$1.51Jun 25, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26?$2.07Jun 25, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26?$2.05Jun 25, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26?$1.04Jun 25, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?$2.07Jun 25, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26?$1.04Jun 25, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?$3.10Jun 25, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?$0.54Jun 25, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 26?$1.05Jun 25, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?$2.06Jun 25, 16:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 09:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 22:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.