Smooth-Usual
0xa10ee19cb9dcea57149bb32a8b52613103280ddf
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$3.1K
Win rate
18%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
111222 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-174.84
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
111111 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-111.11
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
39601 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.14
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3?
29931 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-272.07
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?
27600 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-631.34
- YES
Will Solana dip to $100 in November?
24917 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
Will Solana dip to $90 in November?
22372 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-526.77
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
21767 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-108.84
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?
21099 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-851.55
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1?
20064 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-59.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?$0.03Aug 2, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?$152.56Jun 27, 07:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$60.35Jun 16, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 16, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.13Jun 16, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$49.89Jun 16, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-16?$18.29Jun 16, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?$17.97Jun 16, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.15Jun 16, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.30Jun 16, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$61.79Jun 16, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?$20.52Jun 16, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-16?$20.52Jun 16, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-16?$51.30Jun 16, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.15Jun 9, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.15Jun 9, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.02Jun 9, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.11Jun 9, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 9, 11:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $10.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 08:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.