Different-Conclusion
0xa110e16764a904a359a6cee52ebf15b1c62cdc18
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$136.05
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-96.76
Win rate
11%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12?
114 shares @ 40.3¢·now 36.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$41.20
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 13?
106 shares @ 30.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$38.81
$6.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 13?
106 shares @ 20.7¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$27.15
$5.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 12?
116 shares @ 19.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$16.17
$-5.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 13?
106 shares @ 9.8¢·now 11.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$11.62
$1.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 13?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.30
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.05
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 2AM ET
294 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-29.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?$2.09Aug 12, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?$1.00Aug 11, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 13?$33.12Aug 11, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 13?$22.87Aug 11, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 13?$10.87Aug 11, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?$1.00Aug 11, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12?$43.25Aug 11, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 12?$20.81Aug 11, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12?$4.23Aug 11, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 12?$2.08Aug 11, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 13?$1.05Aug 11, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$3.81Aug 11, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 11?$0.50Aug 11, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 11?$8.31Aug 11, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$0.02Aug 11, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$0.40Aug 11, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$0.30Aug 11, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$0.27Aug 11, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 11?$3.13Aug 11, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 11?$1.23Aug 11, 03:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 121 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
121 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 08:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 02:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.