Hard-To-Find-Expectation
0xa11d73052a41fef6962d923a7a92b44ae4c0260f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
91
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-273.07
Realised
$2.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on January 30?
45 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on January 30?
45 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on January 30?
42 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on January 30?
39 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 10?
30 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 8?
29 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 12?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on January 30?
22 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on January 29?
21 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 17?$6.33Feb 18, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 17?$10.00Feb 18, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?$10.00Feb 18, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?$15.00Feb 18, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?$3.50Feb 17, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 17?$3.57Feb 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on February 17?$5.00Feb 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 17?$3.75Feb 17, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 17?$4.00Feb 17, 14:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 17?$5.00Feb 17, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 17?$1.50Feb 17, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?$4.00Feb 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?$3.57Feb 17, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 17?$1.50Feb 17, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?$0.68Feb 17, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?$3.75Feb 17, 09:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?$3.48Feb 17, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 17?$1.00Feb 17, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 17?$1.91Feb 17, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 17?$1.08Feb 17, 09:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 13:24 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 10:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.