Vivid-Antechamber
0xa14e86c6595560d58ba29cc251ff85ccc8cd58ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$4.04
Total PnL
$-122.73
Realised
$-4.07
Win rate
0%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?
4 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.04
$0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on June 26?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 10?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 10?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 27?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 10?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 27?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 10?
1732 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$4.00Jul 16, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 10?$2.09Jul 10, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 10?$2.08Jul 10, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$2.08Jul 10, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 10?$2.07Jul 10, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?$2.08Jul 10, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 10?$1.04Jul 10, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 10?$0.88Jul 10, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 10?$1.34Jul 10, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 10?$2.07Jul 10, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 10?$2.08Jul 10, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 10?$2.09Jul 10, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 10?$1.82Jul 10, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 10?$2.10Jul 10, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
51 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 09:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 03:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.