Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-38.19

Realised

$-1.20

Win rate

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 14

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
296 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
7 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$1.07Aug 19, 02:42 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.07Aug 19, 02:28 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.07Aug 19, 02:28 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 11:34 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$1.01Jul 31, 11:25 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.47Jul 29, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.03Jul 29, 09:24 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.25Jul 29, 07:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.03Jul 29, 07:21 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.41Jul 29, 07:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.02Jul 29, 07:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.77Jun 1, 12:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.03Jun 1, 12:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.27Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.03Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.16Jun 1, 11:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.01Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.05Jun 1, 08:27 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.47Jun 1, 08:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.03Jun 1, 08:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $2.08
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 26, 07:40 UTC
Last active: Aug 19, 02:42 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:05:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data