Relieved-Belligerency
0xa183b52af04fac527f301c729254eeb764f22663
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$30.96
Total PnL
$-62.29
Realised
$56.73
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
182 shares @ 22.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.96
$-9.04
- YES
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?
1155 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
833 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?
557 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?
399 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
348 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will Trump attend the launch?
264 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2025$0.00
$-3.63
- YES
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?
239 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 18, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.05Feb 18, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.43Feb 18, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$1.11Feb 17, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$1.11Feb 17, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 17, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMXi Jinping out in 2025?$5.49Feb 17, 23:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran Nuke in 2025?$12.99Feb 17, 23:27 UTC
- REDEEMAI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?$44.67Feb 17, 23:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$0.00Nov 6, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMDoge ETF approved by July 31?$0.00Nov 6, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMOpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?$0.00Nov 6, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?$5.06Nov 6, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$5.42Nov 6, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMDoge ETF approved by July 31?$6.33Nov 6, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMOpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?$8.96Nov 6, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 6, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 6, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 6, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$3.00Nov 6, 20:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $4.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 18, 11:35 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 09:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".