Both-Uncertainty
0xa194250f531c3cfc63ed1b7be6e1742ccc581b1a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-842.65
Realised
$-1.90
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 20?
267 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?
253 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 20?
82 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 19?
74 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
58 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
55 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 23?
55 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 19?
54 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 19?
51 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.03Aug 2, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?$2.24Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$2.70Jul 27, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$5.00Jul 27, 13:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$5.00Jul 27, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.50Jul 27, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.45Jul 27, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.40Jul 27, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.64Jul 27, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.02Jul 27, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.02Jul 27, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.38Jul 27, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.02Jul 27, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.05Jul 27, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.03Jul 27, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.60Jul 27, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.03Jul 27, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.03Jul 27, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.04Jul 27, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$1.15Jul 27, 12:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 10:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 06:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.