Humble-Assumption
0xa225f0c98344716610d989f7b30b31fed1a540bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-419.75
Realised
$-16.91
Win rate
0%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
117 shares @ 58.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-69.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
87 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
75 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
69 shares @ 57.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
64 shares @ 54.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
47 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
38 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
BNB Up or Down - August 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
36 shares @ 55.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - August 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
28 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
27 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$15.49Aug 18, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$36.36Aug 18, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$20.63Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$20.78Aug 17, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$19.61Aug 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$10.34Aug 17, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$20.00Aug 17, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$11.35Aug 17, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$26.75Aug 16, 22:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$17.86Aug 16, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$15.46Aug 16, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$10.31Aug 16, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$12.39Aug 16, 20:54 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$17.54Aug 16, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$10.30Aug 16, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$27.87Aug 16, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$15.48Aug 16, 10:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $18.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 13:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 01:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.