Impartial-Venison
0xa22dc7164f0f794ff145c333a035f295fb49ea45
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.4K
Realised
$-204.67
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US military action against Iran by Sunday?
7888 shares @ 76.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2025$0.00
$-6.1K
- NO
US military action against Iran by Saturday?
1000 shares @ 93.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2025$0.00
$-938.01
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?
474 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-149.80
- NO
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?
13 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2025$0.00
$-12.87
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?$1.59Mar 30, 21:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?$0.88Mar 30, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$4.82Mar 29, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$2.46Mar 29, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?$15.35Mar 29, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?$19.40Mar 29, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$85.20Mar 29, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$28.30Mar 29, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$10.42Mar 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$14.40Mar 29, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$14.20Mar 29, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$38.00Mar 29, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$37.50Mar 28, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?$0.04Mar 28, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?$1.00Mar 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?$18.68Mar 28, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?$103.50Mar 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?$118.10Mar 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$13.94Mar 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?$9.91Mar 28, 13:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $26.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 16:12 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 21:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.